Financial Statements of the United States Government for the Fiscal Years Ended September 30, 2018, and 2017
Statements of Long-Term Fiscal Projections
The Statements of Long-Term Fiscal Projections are intended to assist readers of the government’s financial statements in assessing the financial condition of the federal government and how the government’s financial condition has changed (improved or deteriorated) during the year and may change in the future. They are also intended to assist readers in assessing whether future budgetary resources of the government will likely be sufficient to sustain public services and to meet obligations as they come due, assuming that current policy for federal government public services and taxation is continued without change.
The Statements of Long-Term Fiscal Projections display the present value of 75-year projections by major category of the federal government’s receipts and non-interest spending. These projections show the extent to which future receipts of the government exceed or fall short of the government’s non-interest spending. The projections are presented both in terms of present value dollars and in terms of present value dollars as a percent of present value GDP. The projections are on the basis of policies currently in place and are neither forecasts nor predictions. These projections are consistent with the projections for Social Security and Medicare presented in the Statements of Social Insurance and are based on the same economic and demographic assumptions as underlie the Statements of Social Insurance. These statements also display the fiscal gap, which is a summary measure of the change in receipts or non-interest spending necessary to hold the ratio of debt held by the public to GDP at the end of the projection period to its value at the beginning of the period. Note 23—Long-Term Fiscal Projections, further explains the methods used to prepare these projections and provides additional information. Unaudited required supplementary information further assesses the sustainability of current fiscal policy and provides results based on alternative assumptions to those used in the basic statement.
As discussed further in Note 23, a sustainable policy is one where the debt-to-GDP ratio is stable or declining over the long term. GDP measures the size of the nation’s economy in terms of the total value of all final goods and services that are produced in a year. Considering financial results relative to GDP is a useful indicator of the economy’s capacity to sustain the government’s many programs.
United States Government
Statements of Long-Term Fiscal Projections (Note 23)
Present Value of 75 Year Projections as of September 30, 2018 and 20171
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|In trillions of dollars||Percent of GDP 2|
|Social Security Payroll Taxes||60.6||58.0||2.6||4.3||4.3||-|
|Medicare Payroll Taxes||20.3||19.4||0.9||1.4||1.4||-|
|Individual Income Taxes||143.8||141.9||1.9||10.2||10.5||(0.3)|
|Corporate income taxes||18.8||-3||-3||1.3||-3||-3|
|Medicare Part A 4||29.1||26.6||2.5||2.1||2.0||0.1|
|Medicare Parts B & D 5||35.7||32.3||3.4||2.5||2.4||0.1|
|Total Non-interest Spending||308.2||284.6||23.6||21.9||21.1||0.8|
|Receipts less non-interest spending||(46.2)||(16.2)||(30.0)||(3.3)||(1.2)||(2.1)|
|Fiscal Gap 6||(4.1)||(2.0)||(2.1)|
1 75-year present value projections for 2018 are as of 9/30/2018 for fiscal years 2019-2093; projections for 2017 are as of 9/30/2017 for fiscal years 2018-2092.
2 The 75-year present value of nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which drives the calculations above is $1,406.3 trillion starting in fiscal year 2019, and was $1,347.0 trillion starting in fiscal year 2018.
3 In fiscal year 2017, Corporate Income Taxes were included as part of Other Receipts. To incorporate the effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Corporate Income Taxes are modeled separately in fiscal year 2018. Directly comparable data are not available for fiscal year 2017. The $11.7 trillion decrease in Other Receipts is the total of 2018 Corporate Income Taxes ($18.8 trillion) and Other Receipts ($18.5 trillion) less the 2017 Other Receipts ($49.0 trillion).
4 Represents portions of Medicare supported by payroll taxes.
5 Represents portions of Medicare supported by general revenues. Consistent with the President's Budget, outlays for Parts B & D are presented net of premiums.
6 To prevent the debt-to-GDP ratio from rising over the next 75 years, a combination of non-interest spending reductions and receipts increases that amounts to 4.1 percent of GDP on average is needed (2.0 percent of GDP on average in 2017). See Note 23 — Long-Term Fiscal Projections.
Totals may not equal the sum of components due to rounding.
The accompanying notes are an integral part of these financial statements.
- A Message from the Secretary of the Treasury -
- A Message from the Secretary of the Treasury - PDF version
- Table of Contents - PDF version
- Results in Brief - PDF version
- The Nation By The Numbers
- Executive Summary - PDF version
- Management's Discussion & Analysis - PDF version
- Statement of the Comptroller General of the United States - PDF version
- Financial Statements - PDF version
- Statements of Net Cost
- Statements of Operations and Changes in Net Position
- Reconciliations of Net Operating Cost and Budget Deficit
- Statements of Changes in Cash Balance from Budget and Other Activities
- Balance Sheets
- Statements of Long-Term Fiscal Projections
- Statements of Social Insurance and Changes in Social Insurance Amounts
- Statements of Changes in Social Insurance Amounts
- Notes to the Financial Statements - PDF version
- Note 1. Summary of Significant Accounting Policies - PDF version
- Note 2. Cash and Other Monetary Assets - PDF version
- Note 3. Accounts and Taxes Receivable, Net - PDF version
- Note 4. Loan Receivable and Loan Guarantee Liabilities, Net - PDF version
- Note 5. Inventories and Related Property, Net - PDF version
- Note 6. Property, Plant, and Equipment, Net - PDF version
- Note 7. Debt and Equity Securities - PDF version
- Note 8. Investments in Government-Sponsored Enterprises - PDF version
- Note 9. Other Assets - PDF version
- Note 10. Accounts Payable - PDF version
- Note 11. Federal Debt Securities Held by the Public and Accrued Interest - PDF version
- Note 12. Federal Employee and Veteran Benefits Payable - PDF version
- Note 13. Environmental and Disposal Liabilities - PDF version
- Note 14. Benefits Due and Payable - PDF version
- Note 15. Insurance and Guarantee Program Liabilities - PDF version
- Note 16. Other Liabilities - PDF version
- Note 17. Collections and Refunds of Federal Revenue - PDF version
- Note 18. Contingencies - PDF version
- Note 19. Commitments - PDF version
- Note 20. Funds from Dedicated Collections - PDF version
- Note 21. Fiduciary Activities - PDF version
- Note 22. Social Insurance - PDF version
- Note 23. Long-Term Fiscal Projections - PDF version
- Note 24. Stewardship Land and Heritage Assets - PDF version
- Note 25. Disclosure Entities and Related Parties - PDF version
- Note 26. Subsequent Events - PDF version
- Required Supplementary Information (Unaudited) - PDF version
- The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy - PDF version
- Social Insurance - PDF version
- Deferred Maintenance and Repairs - PDF version
- Other Claims for Refunds - PDF version
- Tax Assessments - PDF version
- Federal Oil and Gas Resources - PDF version
- Federal Natural Resources Other than Oil and Gas - PDF version
- Other Information (Unaudited) - PDF version
- Required Supplementary Stewardship Information (Unaudited) - PDF version
- U.S. Government Accountability Office Independent Auditor's Report - PDF version
- Related Resources
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Last modified 08/27/19